Friday Analysis | Verstappen in control as Leclerc prepares for Sunday

It wasn't a surprise to see Charles Leclerc take a grid penalty for the Canadian Grand Prix after his race ended in smoke last weekend and the fact that Ferrari put a huge focus on the long runs throughout the first day of action in Montreal. Red Bull Racing look to have the advantage, with Alpine knocking on the door should anything go wrong with the big teams. 

Sectors and Characteristics

The low-downforce old-school circuit in Montreal is highly rated by the drivers. There are numerous heavy braking zones, usually leading up to a chicane. At the start of the final sector, there is a tight hairpin which has become a well-known feature of this track. Drivers also have to be aware of the final chicane which features the wall of the champions. New World Champion Max Verstappen is yet to hit this wall. 

The first sector is more twisty than the others. With their strong traction and quick acceleration through the slow-medium speed corners in the opening part of the season, this sector should favour Ferrari going on what's happened so far this season. The second sector features two chicanes with medium-sized straights on either side. This sector is all about acceleration coming out of the corners, which should favour Ferrari but we expect it to be tighter. The final sector is very 'Jeddah-like' with a very long straight. This should fall towards Red Bull Racing. 

In actual fact, Verstappen and Leclerc are extremely closely matched in both sector one and sector two. This could suggest that Red Bull have found some improvements in the medium-speed corners, or Ferrari have gone for a race set-up sacrificing qualifying speed. As expected, the final sector falls towards Verstappen. For the first time in a long while, Perez is off the pace by one full second compared to the other front runners. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Qualifying and Race

The 2022 F1 season has been a fight between Ferrari and Red Bull. Generally, the Red Bull car has had better race pace, whilst it's been the Ferrari car having better single-lap speed. It's also important to note that recent reliability issues and tactical mistakes for Ferrari could've altered these statistics. But it's Red Bull who have six wins, and Ferrari who have six pole positions. 

In the previous 40 Grands Prix to take place in Montreal, 48% of races have been won from pole position with another 18% coming from P2. To give some comparison, Monaco's winner has come from pole position 44% of the time. Qualifying is very important in Canada.

Some of the drivers started their long runs during the first free practice session given the threat of rain in the afternoon. That rain didn't come so drivers got another opportunity to run with high fuel. Leclerc stayed on the soft tyre for the entire FP2 session. This provided us with an indication that Ferrari were trying to find the right set-up for a long run on the soft tyres. Meaning that Ferrari were planning for a race set-up because of the impending penalty. 

Carlos Sainz also had very strong long-run pace. The Italian team seem to want to flip the tables and make some overtakes during Sunday's Grand Prix. Mercedes drivers Lewis Hamilton and George Russell were much closer to the front runners on long-run pace, but they lost out massively on single-lap speed. Hamilton finished in P13 after trying a different path compared to his teammate who finished in P7. 

In FP1, Fernando Alonso breached the top three and then the top five later in the day. He also had some good pace on the long runs, matching Verstappen but on tyres one step harder. Alpine look like they are in the mix to provide an upset if something happens to Red Bull and Carlos Sainz.