Friday Analysis | Are Mercedes really the strongest team in Miami?

Formula 1 teams and drivers got their first chance to drive the Miami Grand Prix circuit on Friday. Though some disappointment will linger inside the garages overnight, as very little race-pace data could be collected. The second free practice session was littered with red and yellow flags, though we expect Red Bull and Ferrari to be close together. And there’s a strong hint that Mercedes will be involved, or at least sit closer to the front than other circuits in 2022. 

Closer Mercedes

George Russell finished both sessions inside the top two on the timesheets, with Lewis Hamilton breaching the top four in practice two. Both Carlos Sainz and Max Verstappen failed to set a challenging time in the afternoon which means there are question marks over the validity of the P4 finish. However, nobody can argue against the fact Hamilton was only two-and-a-half tenths behind P1, and just over one-tenth behind Charles Leclerc. The Brit finished in P2 on the ultimate lap time. The gap seems to have been cut down on this circuit, though engine modes and fuel loads remain an unknown factor. 

Apart from in the last few minutes of FP2 when Mercedes made some set-up changes, porpoising seemed less of an issue in Miami compared to the previous four circuits for Mercedes. The question remains as to whether this is track characteristics or some of the upgrades applied to the W13. 

Mercedes are running with a new rear wing, a new front wing and a new beam wing. A full package that is significant no matter how much the seven-time World Champion plays it down. Especially with the rear wing, it’s likely to be a track-specific change. The rear wing is incredibly flat, pointing straight upwards. 

Because of the two very long straights, all teams will be running low downforce setups. On the long straights, downforce isn’t required and there's drag which Mercedes are hoping to dump with the wings. Less downforce should help reduce the bouncing because the sucking to the ground occurs less. It seems like this is bringing Mercedes into play this weekend. 

Best sector times 

The Miami circuit is split into three different sectors. The opening sector is a twisty, but relatively open sector with some corners that ‘snake’ around. A sector which picks up speed as drivers go along, that concludes with an hairpin. This sector is very important as both Ferrari and Red Bull could be strong here. 

Sector two is split into two separate parts. It starts with a Jeddah style straight with a curve before going into a really slow section that resembles the castle part of the Baku circuit. The second part is very slow, and therefore this sector plays into the hands of Ferrari. 

Sector three is very unique for Formula 1. It features an extremely long straight and a heavy braking zone at turn 17. Drivers then open up the throttle before heading through an elongated chicane and then taking the start/finish line. This sector is expected to fall heavily into the hands of Red Bull Racing, who have had much better straight-line speed all season. 

On the ultimate lap time (all three best sectors added together), Hamilton is ahead of Russell by fractions. Leclerc is ahead overall, but crucially both Mercedes drivers are in and around his time. Historically, Perez takes a bit of time to get used to street circuits, whilst Verstappen didn’t get a proper run in FP2 and times in FP1 are virtually incomparable. 

Perhaps the most interesting time to note is Hamilton’s purple sector three. The fastest in a sector that is basically a straight line. That highlights just how significant the porpoising affects the Mercedes car at other circuits. Leclerc setting the fastest time in sector two is as expected. Long-run data isn’t clear because teams only managed around five laps at the end. 

On the narrow track, overtaking seems to be really tricky. Anything away from the racing line is very dirty and therefore lacks a lot of grip. Unless this is cleared up, drivers are going to find it very difficult to use this offline and therefore make the overtake.