Big changes within Red Bull or just consistency in 2023?

Sergio Perez has started the 2022 Formula 1 season strongly and, in doing so, appears to be putting a down payment on a contract extension. This immediately raises questions about Pierre Gasly' s future within the Red Bull group and AlphaTauri's lineup for 2023.

Perez is the ideal number two

Perez was driving in a neat third place (fourth before Verstappen crashed out) at the Bahrain Grand Prix when he crashed out, grabbed pole in Saudi Arabia and was on the podium in Australia. With that, the season could hardly have started better for the Mexican, who seems very happy with the new RB18.

For Red Bull Racing, this is an ideal situation. Max Verstappen has proven capable of becoming world champion and leading the team, but in 2021 the distance from his teammate was simply too great. In 2022 Perez has started much better, finishing ahead of Max in just one qualifying session and (due to Verstappen's dropouts) has even more points.

If Verstappen's car starts to finish races, he will again be the team's number one, but after a long search since the departure of Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull now seems to have found a good and consistent teammate for the Dutchman with Perez. Alexander Albon and Pierre Gasly came up short, Perez is holding his own.

In fact, in 2021 the discussion reappeared whether Red Bull should not try again with Gasly. The Frenchman had only been given six months by Red Bull and since then at AlphaTauri had shown again how fast he is. However, Red Bull's leadership seems unimpressed with those performances and doubts that Gasly won't fall into the same trap again if he is promoted.

Other than the fact that Gasly may be performing well, Red Bull will not want to change a good formula. If Perez makes the desired step forward (which it does look like now) compared to 2021 and is therefore an ideal teammate for Verstappen, why not give him a new contract?

What choices does Gasly have?

If Perez continues to perform like this and forces a new contract, then the gaze goes directly to Gasly. The AlphaTauri driver has made no secret of his desire to make a move up the ladder. AlphaTauri is a simple mid-tier team even with the new rules and the Frenchman would like to compete for wins. That's almost certainly not going to happen with a sister team.

With his performance at AlphaTauri Gasly has attracted the attention of other teams. Mercedes, for example, is charmed by the Frenchman and may see him as the successor to Lewis Hamilton, where he could form a strong duo alongside George Russell. It would be a big tick towards Red Bull from Gasly, but the question is how serious is Mercedes' interest?

Although Gasly has proven that he is fast, AlphaTauri has also been left with the various faults in his races. Whereas these were less noticeable in the midfield, they were hugely apparent at Red Bull Racing. Any new employer of Gasly must therefore feel that this will improve. Looking at past choices, you would expect Mercedes to put in a more stable driver in addition to the talent Russell.

Alpine as a brand would be ideal for Gasly, but his former childhood friend is already there as a French driver with a contract through 2024. Although Fernando Alonso is getting on in age, he doesn't seem to be planning to leave just yet, nor do his performances give any reason to push him aside. In addition, should he leave, Oscar Piastri should still be the team's preferred choice.

Furthermore, the options to join a team with serious ambitions are limited. McLaren already has both drivers locked in for 2023 and Ferrari seems to be planning the same thing with only Carlos Sainz's expiring contract left. Alfa Romeo and Haas are glorified B teams of Ferrari, leaving only Williams and Aston Martin.

Switch to a big name

Williams and Aston Martin are big names with, in the meantime, hefty backers to make the dreams come true. The new regulations of 2022 were a great opportunity to take a step forward, but both teams have not succeeded as yet. However, it does not take away from the fact that these teams have the financial resources and plans to advance to the top.

Although at first glance it would seem a step backward for Gasly, one of these two teams might be able to compete at the front in the future. In that respect, the Frenchman would do well to hear what the plans of both teams are and in which team he might have confidence.

AlphaTauri's benchmark

Another option for Gasly is to remain the benchmark at AlphaTauri and wait for his chance at Red Bull Racing. Perez is 32 years old and will not last that many more years. Gasly, at 26, has time to wait and the Italian team knows what he has. He is greatly appreciated within the team and is crucial to Red Bull's training as well.

Indeed, in his years at AlphaTauri, Gasly has been an ideal gauge for other drivers. The Frenchman is fast, but has proven to be just not good enough for Red Bull Racing and Max Verstappen. That's a good bar for talents. For example, Brendon Hartley and Daniil Kvyat could already be crossed off and Yuki Tsunoda doesn't seem good enough either.

Tsunoda already lost two qualifying duels to Gasly in 2022 and by a nice margin of 0.426s. In 2021, this was no different. Gasly won the qualifying duel by a clear margin of 21-1 with an average difference of 0.527s. Gasly also won the racing duel convincingly 14-1 and scored 110 points compared to Tsunoda's 32.

So within AlphaTauri, Gasly no longer has to prove himself and it immediately creates a problem if he does leave. Tsunoda needs to improve immensely in 2022 if he is to be of real value to Red Bull. The ties with Honda are clear, but Helmut Marko's patience is not infinite. If he already doesn't think Gasly is good enough, Tsunoda will never get a chance at Red Bull.

Since AlphaTauri is a step in the training of Red Bull talents, it is ideal for AlphaTauri to keep Gasly. He could also test the next talent in the ranks after Tsunoda. Should Gasly leave, Red Bull does have a dilemma. If you retain Tsunoda he can serve as a benchmark, but how good is that benchmark if he himself did not manage to beat Gasly?

Red Bull talents on the way

In that respect, it's good that there are five Red Bull talents active in Formula 2 this year. With potentially two vacancies to fill, this is the year for the talents to showcase themselves. Of those five, Jehan Daruvala seems the least likely candidate. At 23, the man from India is already in his third season in F2, which does not necessarily make him the biggest talent in training.

F1 in 2023 is also likely to come too soon for Ayumu Iwasa. The Japanese driver is only in his third year in Europe, is twenty years old, and did not exactly impress in his debut year in Formula 3 with a twelfth place in F3. Dane Dennis Hauger won Formula 3 in his second season in 2021 but still seems to be struggling in F2 in 2022. He only finished in the points once in two race weekends.

Liam Lawson is arguably the biggest talent in the Red Bull line-up. The 20-year-old New Zealander missed out on the title on his DTM debut when his rival forced him off the track and was regularly plagued by bad luck in Formula 2 and Formula 3, never winning a title. In his second F2 season, he has started strongly and is second in the championship after one win and two podium finishes. Lawson has an edge because he managed to prove himself in DTM against Alexander Albon who was his teammate.

Juri Vips has not yet won a race this year but is already in a handsome fourth place. The 21-year-old Estonian has been around for a long time and is considered a great talent. It has not yet led to a complete breakthrough, but in 2022 he gets his biggest chance to prove himself.

Lawson and Vips have also been appointed as the reserve drivers for Red Bull and AlphaTauri in 2022 and will also be in action during the first free practice sessions. This is mandatory for Formula 1 teams this year and gives the talents an extra chance to show themselves.

Marko must consider interesting choices

So there are interesting times ahead for Red Bull. For the main team, the choice seems easy if Perez performs well, but that may have consequences for Gasly. He will want to look further, but as mentioned, the options are limited. Will Gasly wait or will he take a gamble at a team where better performance is not guaranteed?

Gasly's choice will determine the fate of the three other candidates. If he stays, chances are that Red Bull will want to test Lawson or Vips alongside the Frenchman. The one who performs best in F2 might then get that chance. If Gasly does leave, Red Bull can choose to put the best F2 driver next to Tsunoda or use both talents as a lineup for 2023.

In that respect, it's make or break for Tsunoda this year as well. If he shows he can compete with Gasly, he could potentially become the new benchmark. If he lags far behind his teammate, there's a good chance Red Bull will look elsewhere. Now there are two talents ready to make the switch.