A Red Bull junior must have a chance in 2023, will Gasly or Perez leave?

That Red Bull Racing must choose between Pierre Gasly and Sergio Perez after this season was already clear by now, but for the Austrian formation that choice also has huge consequences for Red Bull's training program. Five of their drivers are currently competing in Formula 2 and all of them are aiming for a spot at AlphaTauri.

Of Gasly, we know he wants a step up. Helmut Marko acknowledged this week that there is a plausible chance that the Frenchman will pack his bags if he is again denied a spot at Red Bull Racing in 2023. The moment Gasly leaves, a vacancy is created that can be filled by one of the Red Bull juniors.

However, Gasly may want to go to another team in the premier class of motorsport, but given the situation of the current contracts, that seems to be a difficult task. At Mercedes, Ferrari (with the upcoming contract extension of Sainz) and McLaren, all seats are already given for next season. Fernando Alonso's contract expires after this year with Alpine, but the two-time world champion has already indicated that he would like to continue with the French team. Moreover, they have the very talented Oscar Piastri in reserve.

Does Gasly have an alternative?

If Gasly is allowed to make the switch to the top team, the curtain falls on Perez. The chance that the Mexican will drive for AlphaTauri is very small, because that is in line with the DNA of Red Bull. They want to give new talents the chance to show themselves at the highest level. So the Red Bull juniors seem to have to hope for a promotion for Gasly.

Liam Lawson, Jehan Daruvala, Juri Vips, Dennis Hauger and Ayumi Iwasa are the five names that are currently active in the rookie class. Lawson and Vips seem to be the drivers with the best chances for promotion to Formula 1. They will therefore be in action in the first free practice sessions on behalf of Red Bull Racing and AlphaTauri.

Time is running out

Vips, Lawson and Daruvala drove a full year in Formula 2 last season and are now in their second season. Hauger and Iwasa competed in Formula 3 in 2021. If the first three drivers still want to make the step to Formula 1, then 2023 is the moment. At a time when someone is racing for three years in Formula 2 and then 'only' (at best) becomes champion, the chance of a spot in Formula 1 is very slim, as Nyck de Vries recently proved.

If one of the Red Bull juniors becomes Formula 2 champion this year, the rules do not allow them to compete in the same class for another year. It is then either earn a move to Formula 1 or get out of the picture, as the future teaches us. Hauger and Iwasa have a little more time and will probably drive Formula 2 again in 2023.

For Marko, it will be a tricky situation to manage. Actually, Red Bull owes it to its stand to give a driver who performs excellently in Formula 2 the chance. Lawson is currently in second place in the championship with 34 points, but had he not stalled in the feature race in Saudi Arabia he would have been leading by a considerable margin. Vips meanwhile is also doing well at P4, he has only four points less than Lawson. Daruvala is also in good shape with 25 points.

Who will make room?

In short: it looks like it will be an exit for Perez or Gasly next winter, with the Mexican seeming more likely to close the Red Bull door behind him. It's not a sell to let talents like Vips, Lawson and/or to a lesser extent Daruvala drive a third year of Formula 2. Nobody benefits from that.