Why Liam Lawson belongs in Ricciardo's seat at VCARB

Retrospectively, the already stupid decision proved to be a blunder of sorts. Instead of putting the convincing Liam Lawson in the seat of Visa Cash App RB, Red Bull's wise men decided to reinstate Daniel Ricciardo after his injury in 2023. No thought was given to the future, but an incomprehensible wish for times now gone by pushed the Italian team in the wrong direction. Fortunately, it now looks like the right decision will be made after all.

Word trickled through from New Zealand early on Monday that Ricciardo had been given an ultimatum: Perform now, or you will be replaced by Liam Lawson. Given Ricciardo's form in recent years, it is hard to imagine him suddenly improving in Japan and China. Therefore, Lawson is undoubtedly warming up cautiously in the wings. Finally, the now 22-year-old driver will sniff a real chance.

While peer Oscar Piastri is already in his second season in Formula 1, Lawson has been in the waiting room for years. Last year, the New Zealander raced in the Japanese Super Formula, while he was previously allowed to mature in DTM. It was thanks to a hand injury to Ricciardo that the world could see for the first time at Zandvoort and the four races thereafter how good Lawson is in an F1 car.

Lawson was unfairly dismissed

But what happened after five promising races? Ricciardo was allowed to return for the United States Grand Prix, and Lawson could return to his regular spot at the back of the pit box. Ricciardo was given a contract for 2024, with the announcement that he is a serious option to move on to Red Bull Racing in '25. How strange must that have sounded to Lawson?

The very organisation that prides itself on giving young talent a chance chose to ignore Lawson and let a seasoned driver muddle through for another year. Who made that decision? One would suspect Christian Horner, Red Bull Racing's team boss and (still) huge admirer of Ricciardo.

In the Netflix series Drive to Survive, Horner even called Ricciardo his "favourite F1 driver". We now know that Horner and external adviser Helmut Marko are no longer on the same page, and it is not crazy to think that Marko had a preference for Lawson even then. The Austrian is known to rate Lawson highly. With the current results, Ricciardo's position has become untenable and the same fate seems to await him as befell Nyck de Vries a year ago.

Does Red Bull Racing beckon for Lawson?

If so, Lawson has 19 Grands Prix to gain further knowledge and experience in Formula 1. If the New Zealander manages to convince, he should be the first-choice driver to become Max Verstappen's teammate from 2025 onwards - provided he stays at the racing team. Not Sergio Perez (Melbourne again showed his inconsistency), Carlos Sainz (the dynamic between him and Verstappen caused too much tension at Toro Rosso) or Alex Albon (saves a hefty buyout fee), but at the moment, Red Bull's best bet is Liam Lawson.

Exactly as Red Bull normally always does: get a self-trained driver into the organisation's premier F1 team and pursue new successes with him. Undoubtedly, that is a scenario to which Lawson won't say 'no' to.